European developments in the field of armored platforms are aimed at stopping the threat emanating from one European country, which, unlike other countries on the continent, often exploiting outdated platforms, is rapidly increasing its fleet of armored vehicles.
Many armies want to move to parks that have increased levels of digitization and networking, a departure from the largely analogous and fragmented capabilities of the past. This ensures that, like everything else on the battlefield, the machines will function as seamless network nodes within the vast array of systems that employ modern forces, especially within the NATO structure, within which many European armies must interact.
There is also particular emphasis on increasing fire efficiency as the military strives to maximize its offensive capabilities while maintaining the levels of mobility required to operate on a modern battlefield.
At the proper height
The acquisition of new and the modernization of existing machines is often delayed and stretched out over years, and therefore governments and industry seek to ensure that the elements integrated into these projects will extend the life of the machines when they eventually enter service, as well as any necessary upgrades in the future.
“Like shipbuilding, armored vehicle acquisition and modernization programs are labor intensive,” confirmed John Stridom of Newton Europe, a consulting firm. "Unlike mass production, for example, in the automotive or aerospace industry, it turned out to be difficult to automate programs for the manufacture or modernization of armored vehicles."
Stridom noted that due to the high cost of acquiring new platforms over the past 20 years, projects for the modernization of armored vehicles have been implemented more often than procurement programs, although the operation of modernized vehicles has its own characteristics and difficulties. "Modernization programs face challenging interoperability challenges, along with energy and electromagnetic spectrum constraints, and challenges inherent in legacy architecture that was designed to last."
Many recent armored vehicle procurement programs have been launched as urgent projects in response to well-known events that have forced the European military to pay attention to their missing capabilities in this area. For example, armored vehicle fleets consist of vehicles with a wide variety of capabilities and varying levels of logistical support throughout their entire service life.
“While some of these programs included the cost of support from the very beginning, others did not include such support, and this imposes additional resource constraints,” Stridom explained. For example, the British army, in accordance with urgent requirements, modernized some subsystems of its Challenger 2 tank, and now, after 20 years of operation, the vehicle must undergo a service life extension program, in accordance with which a new digital architecture, sights and a cannon will be integrated, although some tanks in the army are already underwent partial modernization.
Rheinmetall and BAE Systems, the parent vehicle manufacturer, applied for the life extension program, but in July 2019 it was announced that the two companies had formed a joint venture, Rheinmetall BAE Systems Land; in essence, this means that one applicant applies for the project. However, it still has to be determined which elements of the two applications will be selected and implemented.
The UK is also upgrading its Warrior BMP under the Capability Sustainment Program, which was outsourced to Lockheed Martin UK and includes the installation of a new turret and cannon. This once again demonstrates the attempts of the British army to modernize outdated fleets in order to continue their operation in the coming years without the need to purchase new vehicles.
However, Stridom noted that the scale of such programs creates enormous difficulties in their implementation, especially against the background of declining production opportunities in the UK over the past few years. "Since there is currently no infrastructure in Britain to organize automated production or retrofits, it becomes difficult to keep up with the schedule, for example in the 600 Warrior retrofit program."
“There are also difficulties in predicting the total demand and, as a result, aging and logistical support become major problems throughout the life of the equipment. This is not uncommon in armored vehicle programs, but is becoming a particular challenge due to limited supply chain flexibility and significant barriers to low-volume suppliers,”Stridom continued.
At the same time, the UK, purchasing a certain amount of new equipment, is also working to eliminate the deficit in production capacity. For example, the British army will receive a Boxer car developed by ARTEC (a consortium of Rheinmetall and Krauss-Maffei Wegmann), but already as a full partner. The UK re-joined the program in 2018 after many years of absence and thus ensured the participation of its industry in the development and final assembly of the platform.
The UK is also in the process of acquiring a new Ajax armored vehicle based on the ASCOD platform, which is being developed in several configurations by General Dynamics UK.
French zoo
Meanwhile, the French army is updating its fleet of armored vehicles under the Scorpion program, which provides for the purchase of new platforms, including the Griffon VBMR 6x6 (universal armored vehicle) and Jaguar EBRC 6x6 (combat reconnaissance armored vehicle), manufactured by a consortium formed by Arquus, Nexter Systems and Thales. In addition, in February 2018, Nexter and Texelis were selected for the development and production of the VBMR-L 4x4 multipurpose light armored vehicle, which will be the third type supplied under the Scorpion program. The VBMR-L vehicle, dubbed Serval, will replace some variants of army platforms, for example, the VAB 4x4 armored personnel carriers, VLRA and P4 light trucks. In early 2019, several VBMR-L prototypes were manufactured and several vehicles are planned to be delivered by the end of the same year.
The Scorpion program is a very large project involving the purchase of thousands of platforms. It is planned that the Griffon VBMR and Jaguar EBRC machines will have a component uniformity of about 70%.
In April 2017, the French Procurement Authority issued the first order for serial production of 20 Jaguar vehicles, deliveries of which will begin in 2020. Currently, the French government expects delivery of 300 Jaguar cars, although it was originally planned to buy 248 cars. In its 2018 military planning law, it was revealed that the army will accelerate the delivery of EBRC platforms by 50% by 2025, and a total of 150 units should be delivered by this year, the first four vehicles should be delivered in 2020.
Initially, it was expected that 1,722 Griffon armored vehicles would be purchased to replace VAB wheeled armored personnel carriers, but in May 2018, the Office said that, according to the new law, this number would be increased to 1,872. In case of successful testing of the VBMR-L platform, the delivery of the first batch of 108 units will take place in 2022, then 154 vehicles in 2023, 112 in 2024 and 115 in 2025, that is, a total of 489 vehicles. During serial production, additional orders can be placed based on the declared needs of the army for up to 2,000 VBMR-L platforms.
The law implies that the army will acquire an additional 156 Griffon cars and 40 Jaguars by 2025, that is, a total of 936 Griffons, 150 Jaguars and 489 VBMR-Ls will be delivered over the next 8 years.
In June 2017, Belgium announced that it would purchase 60 Jaguar vehicles and 417 Griffon vehicles, which will go to the troops in 2025-2030. Later in October 2018, an order was placed for the planned 60 Jaguar platforms, although the total number of Griffon platforms was reduced to 382 units.
Change of spots
Germany developed the Leopard series main battle tanks, which are now used not only in the German army, but also in many foreign countries.
The Leopard 1 and 2 MBTs are showing great interest from countries that cannot develop their own MBTs on their own, and since these tanks are in service with many of them, they are being modernized as part of numerous projects in order to extend the service life until the choice of platforms to replace them.
Germany is upgrading its Leopard 2 tanks to the 2A7V / 2A7V + standard. These works are carried out by KMW and Rheinmetall, although only one of them has been selected by other countries; for example, Poland chose Rheinmetall to renew its fleet.
The main tank manufacturer, KMW, was awarded a contract in May 2017 to modernize 104 German Leopard 2 vehicles worth 760 million euros, which was followed in September 2017 by a contract with Rheinmetall to assist in this work. The agreement provides for the modernization of a total of 68 Leopard 2A4 tanks, 16 2A6 tanks and 20 2A7 tanks and bringing them to the 2A7V standard. The program provides for the integration of new computers of the fire control system and control panels, as well as the installation of a new laser rangefinder and thermal imaging device.
Rheinmetall also received a contract for the supply of new L55A1 cannons for 2A4 tanks, which will allow the Leopard tank to fire armor-piercing ammunition with a high initial velocity, as well as the new DM11 universal programmable projectile also developed by Rheinmetall. The first modernized machines are to be delivered in 2020.
In April 2019, the company received a contract for the modernization of 101 tanks in the A6 variant for Germany worth about 300 million euros. Under the terms of the deal, KMW will update the operational concept of the platform, sighting system, fire control system, and chassis. All machines are to be re-delivered by 2026.
In addition, France and Germany are developing the next generation MBT, tentatively designated Main Ground Combat System, which will replace the Leopard 2 and Leclerc tanks in service with these two countries.
The concept of the vehicle, based on the hull of the Leopard 2 tank with a Leclerc turret, was presented by KMW and Nexter at Eurosatory 2018 in Paris under the name EMBT (European Main Battle Tank). It aims to strengthen cooperation between the two countries, which have recently launched a series of projects to replace existing systems, including a new generation fighter jet.
Perhaps the MBT is the main armed platform that many countries would like to exploit, but in reality, the number of options available to ground forces wanting to buy a completely new system is quite limited. Therefore, the modernization of existing vehicles is the option that some countries choose to close their backlog in anticipation of the next generation of tanks, for example, EMBT.
Norway, for example, with its Leopard 2 tanks stands at a crossroads, there are ongoing disputes over whether the army will look for a new replacement or find an intermediate solution that can solve the problem of the aging machine. The modernization program for this platform was reportedly rejected by the government in mid-2018, but a request for information on a program to extend the life of tanks was issued in December of the same year. However, a decision still needs to be made about how the country will maintain the combat capabilities of its MBTs outside of this initiative to combat aging technology.
Almost new
The dilemma "new or modernized" is especially obvious to those who currently operate equipment of the Soviet era, for example, the armies of Eastern and Central Europe. In general, many of these countries are striving to switch to machines that are standard in NATO countries. However, here they are faced with a number of problems, including the timing of the procurement programs and rather "biting" prices.
Although many countries would not mind buying new equipment, some of them, including Latvia and Slovenia, are facing a procurement problem, while the Czech Republic, Hungary and Lithuania are developing their path under programs for MBT, BMP, 4x4 and 8x8 armored vehicles.
In 2018, Latvia preferred the GTP 4x4 truck of the Finnish company Sisu Auto, which won over HMMWV from AM General, Cobra from Otokar and Marauder from Paramount Group, but protests from competitors led the government to suspend the program until all "misunderstandings" that occurred in the selection process. After this decision is made, almost no information comes in, but in the end, time will tell what the implications for this competition will be and whether this program will be re-launched.
Meanwhile, in February 2018, Slovenia chose the Boxer 8x8 armored vehicle to form two new combat mechanized infantry units. The country needs 48 BMPs, the first batch should be delivered by the end of 2020. However, the government confirmed in January 2019 that the program would be suspended until further notice. It is assumed that this is due to a reassessment of needs, as the selection was based on legacy queries made many years ago.
Lithuania has so far received two Boxer vehicles out of 88 ordered units, which will ultimately be delivered in four configurations: squad vehicle, platoon vehicle, command post and company commander's vehicle. The Baltic state has also made a request for the purchase of 200 light tactical armored vehicles from the American company Oshkosh, whose funding of 142 million euros is expected to begin in 2020.
The Czech Republic also has a need for 210 new infantry fighting vehicles and 62 Titus 6x6 armored vehicles. Local company Eldis will supply Titus platforms under a licensing agreement with French company Nexter. Several teams, led by BAE Systems, General Dynamics Europe Land Systems, Rheinmetall and PSM (a joint venture between Rheinmetall and KMW), are claiming the supply of the BMP, which will replace the BVP-2 armored vehicles based on the Soviet BMP-2. These teams offer the CV90, ASCOD, Lynx KF41 and Puma machines respectively. A number of agreements were concluded with them on joint work with the Czech industry and the transfer of work to the production sites of the country.
Contracts for the supply of equipment in other countries have been signed and are in the process of being implemented. In January 2019, it was announced that KMW had entered into a contract with Hungary for the supply of 44 new tanks in the Leopard 2A7 + variant to replace the Soviet T-72, as well as 24 new PzH 2000 howitzers.
Under the contract, Hungary will also buy 12 Leopard2 A4 MBTs from KMW warehouses for training purposes. According to the manufacturer, the Leopard 2A7 + tank provides circular passive protection against threats such as directional land mines, mines, rocket-propelled grenades. It is also equipped with improved optoelectronic devices for round-the-clock surveillance over long distances. The PzH 2000 howitzer is armed with a 155 mm / L52 gun, the handling of 60 rounds of ammunition is fully automatic, which ensures a high rate of fire.
Next decade
Over the next ten years, the European military intends to invest more in modernizing its armored vehicles in order to meet the requirements of a potential conflict with an almost equal adversary. According to some reports, this will increase the region's share in this sector from $ 5.2 billion in 2019 to $ 7.1 billion in 2029, making it the second largest market in the world.
Longer service life
While the total spending of the four countries in the region (France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom) that devote the most to military needs is 56% of global spending on armored vehicles, the trend towards increased investment in these platforms is also seen in other countries., in particular in the states of Central and Eastern Europe.
Alarmed by the prospect of a conflict with Russia, these countries' militaries are seeking to replace their outdated Soviet-era car parks with modern platforms that are compatible with NATO standards. These new trends will create new opportunities and support industry in Europe while programs are being phased out in other regions.
According to forecasts, the largest funds will be invested in tracked armored personnel carriers / infantry fighting vehicles and MBT; tank costs are expected to rise from $ 0.6 billion to $ 2 billion by 2029. In connection with the end of the Cold War and the predominance of counterinsurgency hostilities, many countries have delayed the replacement of their tracked platforms. As a result, there is an urgent need for major upgrades in order to ensure the relevance of obsolete technology in European countries in the near future, until the procurement of new generation platforms begins.
Rough trajectory
Despite the revival of the market for heavier tracked vehicles, the cost of wheeled armored vehicles is projected to remain at the same level and amount to 41% of total costs. Suppliers in the sector, with a wide range of platforms ranging from 4x4 patrol vehicles to heavy 8x8 infantry fighting vehicles, have adapted to the changing needs of European countries.
Due to the fact that the market for MRAP class vehicles continues to decline after the withdrawal of troops from Iraq and Afghanistan, the technologies developed for these vehicles were used to create a new generation of protected patrol vehicles and BMP 8x8. These platforms are faster to deploy and easier to maintain, while complementing their tracked counterparts perfectly.
The forecast for the armored vehicle market for 2019-2029 states that growth in these segments will be most pronounced in the next six years. According to some estimates, European spending in 2025 will peak at $ 7.7 billion. It will be followed by a short-term drop to $ 6.3 billion in 2026, after which the rise to $ 7.1 billion in 2029 will begin. This slightly wavy curve reflects the fact that most of the current modernization programs and large purchases currently underway in the region are either planned to be completed or will peak in the mid-2020s, provoking a slowdown in growth and an immediate decrease in investment. in all market sectors.
This trend is confirmed by the BTR / BMP 8x8 sector, which was saturated with a huge number of platforms offered by no fewer manufacturers. Considering that the expected lifespan of most of the platforms is over 40 years, the market will face great difficulties in proposing new platforms as the existing tenders have been completed.
In addition, based on the long development time of other major projects - for example, the Franco-German main ground combat system MGCS, which is planned to be deployed before 2035 - the next wave of purchases with a significant increase in costs is expected no earlier than six years.
Consequently, after the current wave of purchases peaks in 2025, tenders in countries such as Bulgaria and the Czech Republic, which are still in the process of selecting the necessary platforms, could become the pillars of the armored vehicles market in Europe.
