China is ready to conquer space in all directions
The big space "divorce" took place. The fact that the partners continue to visit together and "sweep" the common dwelling - the ISS - does not mean anything. It is already clear that no new programs by Roscosmos and NASA are foreseen in the foreseeable future. Moreover, Russian officials have identified a future partner in space exploration. Now this is China. The world's second economy with a dynamic national space program is a seemingly worthy choice. What could be a new union?
Who is who
"China has completed a 105-day experiment to study human capabilities in a sealed, sealed capsule that mimics a lunar base, feeding exclusively on food grown inside the module," said leading Chinese news agency Xinhua on May 22. "The volunteers came out of the capsule safe and sound."
According to the Chinese media, the participants in the experiment (two women and a man) ate themselves by growing five types of grain crops, 15 varieties of vegetables and one variety of fruits), one hundred percent of oxygen and water was regenerated on board, and waste was used as fertilizer … In other words, the developers of the programs of interplanetary manned flights from the Middle Kingdom seem to have managed to create a life support system of a completely closed cycle. Neither the widely advertised Russian experiment "Mars-500", nor other similar undertakings, have fulfilled the task of creating an optimal LSS model for deep space exploration.
Moreover, this experiment is far from the only achievement of Beijing. This is the answer to the question why China was chosen as a partner of Roscosmos.
Almost immediately after the publication of messages about NASA's sanctions against the Russian side, our responsible officials started talking about the possibility of promoting domestic starfaring without American participation. However, it is clear to everyone that the level of tasks in space exploration is such that it requires international cooperation to one degree or another. Russian capabilities, at least at this stage, certainly presuppose partnership in organizing and conducting complex expeditions.
No matter how optimistic the statements of our officials about the possibility of sole operation of the ISS sound, if the Americans abandon this program, it is clear that it will not be possible to "populate" the station alone. At least because of the limited opportunities in the field of energy and communications. It is even more difficult to deploy new long-term orbital complexes solely on their own. Manned flights, which remain the main focus of Russian cosmonautics, need a partner. Who do we choose from?
Americans are falling away by definition. The European Space Agency is, of course, a serious organization, but unlike China, it has not yet said anything intelligible about manned expeditions. Nobody discounts ESA, but China is a more promising space partner.
Roscosmos does not hide this idea. “Now we are developing a national strategy for manned space flights. Together with the Russian Academy of Sciences and the industry, we are preparing a certain concept outside the ISS,”said the deputy head of the agency Sergei Savelyev at the economic forum that ended in late May in St. Petersburg. He clarified that he means the creation of new manned complexes that will allow Russia to go beyond the Earth's orbit and, possibly, will be used for the exploration of the Moon, which will become the first step into deep space.
Let's pay attention not to the prospects of domestic manned flights, but to the thought of a responsible official that Roscosmos considers China and Europe as strategic partners, provided that the key role in the implementation of projects belongs to Russia.
We have already mentioned Europe as a partner. ESA can be used in the catch-up, but not in the "main team".
After Sergei Savelyev, the curator of the domestic military-industrial complex, including astronautics, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, spoke about China as the main partner after Sergei Savelyev: “After 2020 (when the ISS program ends - A. K.), we may have new projects, related to manned space exploration … with a wider range of partners … We agreed that during the EXPO in Harbin at the end of June we will hold negotiations with our Chinese colleagues on possible new projects on manned space exploration.”
There is little reason to doubt that China will become Russia's favorite in space. It is not for nothing that the last visit to the PRC of Russian President Vladimir Putin is called the beginning of a new stage in the world order.
No noise and dust to the cutting edge
So, what is the cosmonautics of the Celestial Empire?
China started with carrier rockets, and exactly repeated the path of its "big brother", transforming the first combat missiles, obtained by itself from the USSR, into means of launching spacecraft.
On April 24, 1970, China became the third country to successfully launch a satellite of its own production. Until the beginning of the current millennium, Beijing was busy with overcoming the military-technical consequences of the Soviet-Chinese gap in 1960. The forces and means were concentrated on the production of military missiles and mainly military satellites. By the way, from 1970 to 2000, the PRC made 50 successful launches of its own spacecraft. On the basis of ICBMs, it was possible to create a fleet of carrier rockets "Great March". Today we are working on the ninth series of the family. Beijing is speeding up its heavy launch vehicle program. According to open sources, the development of the "Great March-9" is nearing completion. This rocket will be able to launch a payload weighing up to 133 tons into low orbit. That is, before the American lunar masterpiece performed by Wernher von Braun - the Saturn-5 rocket, the Chinese lack only six tons. The corresponding Russian carrier is still in the plans.
However, the presence of "heavy trucks" and even our own satellites in our time does not mean belonging to an elite club of powers that can carry out the entire spectrum of space activities: operate multidisciplinary systems in near-earth orbits, carry out manned expeditions, develop promising programs for the study of interstellar space.
Until the beginning of the new millennium, China could not boast of anything like that. Apparently, the latter circumstance forced Beijing in the early tenths to seek rapprochement with the United States and Russia to participate, say, in the ISS program. However, the Americans were far from enthusiastic about such an expansion of the partnership on the international station, and China stopped trying, concentrating on its own space program.
We note in passing that in 2011 it overtook the United States in terms of the number of launches: 19 versus 18, losing only to Russia. And he held this position in 2012. Only last year, the Americans regained their second place, beating China by four launches. In the next five years, the PRC plans 100 launches of space rockets and the launch of 100 satellites into orbit.
But the most interesting thing is the success of the Celestial Empire in manned flights. It is generally accepted that Russia is the leader in this segment of space activity, and the Chinese are only repeating what we have passed a long time ago. Is it so?
October 2003. In orbit, the Chinese spacecraft "Shenzhou-5" with the taikonaut Yang Liwei on board. The first orbital flight of the Celestial Empire lasted 21 hours and 14 minutes. Since then, China has carried out five manned launches. In terms of the number of the Celestial Empire, it is far from the United States and Russia. But with a high-quality …
The Chinese did not follow the path of venerable teachers, did not make several launches of the same type in a row, and each time they complicated the program.
Livey is followed by a 2005 launch, and there are already two taikonauts in orbit. In 2008 - the first spacewalk. In 2011, the Tiangong-1 module, a prototype of a promising Chinese manned station, appears in orbit. The ship "Shenzhou-8" was docked to it several times in automatic mode, practicing approach and docking maneuvers. In 2012, three people, including a woman, work on board the module for 10 days. Last year, the same flight follows to "consolidate the passed material."
Of course, the 120-ton Mir is not comparable to the 8.5-ton Tiangong. Nevertheless, China today is engaged in exactly what is considered the pinnacle of domestic space thought - orbital complexes. Quantitative equality is not far off. By 2020, the Chinese plans to deploy in orbit a three-module complex "Tiangong-3" weighing about 60 tons. I think that 20 years after the first manned launch, the mass of the Chinese station will exceed a hundred tons.
A few words about the Shenzhou ship, the design philosophy of which is undoubtedly based on the Russian Soyuz half a century ago. However, the technical differences are clear. The main thing is that the ship "Shenzhou" is a shared apparatus. One compartment with the taikonauts returns to Earth, the other remains in orbit and can operate there automatically as a scientific laboratory. In addition, in comparison with the Soyuz, the ship is better equipped with power and has a much larger internal volume.
With regard to deep space exploration, in particular the lunar program, China has become the first country in the past 40 years to have made a soft landing on the surface of an Earth satellite. In December 2013, this was done by the Chang'e-3 apparatus with the Yuytu lunar rover - the Jade Hare. This mission is the second phase of the corresponding Chinese program. Earlier, in 2007 and 2010, the Chang'e-1 and Chang'e-2 satellites orbited the Moon and made a detailed map of it. In the third phase in 2017, China plans to deliver lunar soil samples to Earth. In 2020, according to plans, a manned flight with a landing on the lunar surface is scheduled.
The Chinese calmness and complete confidence in achieving the goal are striking. Of course, in the field of high technologies, the PRC took the best from us. Only the victorious rhetoric of socialist construction was not useful, which for some reason took root in Russian cosmonautics.
In a single formation
The PRC has the largest armed forces in the world, the most numerous ground forces, a relatively modern navy and air force.
The basis of China's nuclear missile potential until 2040 will be the DF-31 solid-propellant three-stage ICBM ("Dong Feng-31" - "Wind from the East") being developed today. According to open sources, the rocket is 13 meters long, 2.25 meters in diameter, and has a launch weight of 42 tons. The ICBM is equipped with an inertial guidance system with astronavigation.
The missile can be equipped with both a monoblock nuclear warhead with a capacity of up to 1 Mt, and a MIRV-type MIRV with three warheads with a capacity of 20-150 kt each. At the same time, the circular probable deviation of the rocket is, according to average estimates, 300 meters - a very flattering indicator for the developer. In other words, this ICBM, designed for both silo and mobile basing, corresponds to the Russian Topol and Topol-M missiles.
According to world press reports, an upgraded version of the DF-31, designated DF-41, is also being developed. The main requirements for the modernization being carried out are an increase in the firing range from 8,000 to 12,000 kilometers and the creation of a full-fledged transport and launcher for this missile, similar to the Russian Topols. With the creation of this missile, China will be able to bombard the entire US territory.
On the other hand, in the PRC today they have come to understand the extremely important role played by the powerful space industry in the military-technical component of the state. It is no coincidence that in April, President of the People's Republic of China Xi Jinping called for strengthening the country's capabilities in near-earth space, adding that the country needs to respond to the militarization of space by rival countries, including the United States.
“Although China continues to adhere to the peaceful uses of space, we must be confident that we can cope with the actions of others in outer space,” the PRC leader said.
Indicative was January 2007, when a Chinese launch vehicle with a kinetic interceptor destroyed an old but functional PRC meteorological satellite Feng Yun-1C. There is complete confidence that the Chinese have conducted the first anti-satellite weapon test in their history.
Then the Americans "froze", and in this state they are, one might say, still. Characteristic in this regard is the publication in June 2011 of an article by two retired American intelligence officers in the authoritative aerospace weekly Aviation Week & Space Technology.
The essence of the fears expressed by experts is that the command and control systems of the Pentagon's armed forces and national channels for collecting and processing intelligence information are 80 percent dependent on the space component. In other words, without satellite support, all sophisticated modern weapons with "smart" bombs and high-precision cruise missiles capable of hitting a mosquito are nothing more than scrap. The American orbital group currently has more than 500 vehicles providing uninterrupted communication, target designation and navigation. China, according to intelligence officers, is capable of delivering a preemptive strike against the corresponding space and ground structures of the United States. An attack can, with a high degree of probability, be effective and seriously disorganize the command and control of troops. Then, American experts predict, Beijing may negotiate a ceasefire. Moreover, the United States will most likely find it profitable to agree, since the military-technical and reconnaissance capabilities of the Pentagon will be significantly damaged.
The question is: will the country agree with practically unlimited resources, armed with an advanced military-technical philosophy, which made it possible to produce the most modern products, to share with someone the palm in space? If so, then only on an equal footing and under the strict condition of unlimited use of the entire potential of the “partner”.
The Chinese, without boasting, without pathos, without beating themselves in the chest, make their country great.
