Republic of China
In the most difficult situation is Taiwan - a partially recognized state in East Asia. The PRC claims sovereignty over the island of Taiwan and other islands belonging to the Republic of China. During the civil war in China, the Kuomintang conservative political party was defeated, and the remnants of its troops retreated to Taiwan. With the support of the United States, the Kuomintang government of the Republic of China retained this island. Beijing views Taiwan and the surrounding islands as part of a single and indivisible Chinese state. Taiwan also previously claimed sovereignty over all Chinese territory. However, this issue has not been raised lately.
The United States takes a special position. On the one hand, Washington benefits from the conflict between the two Chinas, which does not allow the Chinese from the two shores of the Taiwan Strait to agree among themselves and become a single state. The absorption of Taiwan by the PRC will seriously strengthen the Celestial Empire. In 1979, the US Congress passed the Taiwan Relations Act, and the United States pledged to defend Taiwan, resist any involuntary attempts to unite it with China, and arm it. On the other hand, Washington does not want to irritate the "Chinese factory" too much to avoid a major crisis. Thus, regular supplies of American weapons to the Kyrgyz Republic cause a negative reaction from the PRC. Therefore, the United States refuses to help the Kyrgyz Republic in carrying out a large-scale modernization of the armed forces. So, George W. Bush at one time promised to deliver to Taiwan the F-16 C / D aircraft, which Taiwan requested, but then, due to the tough position of the PRC, Washington decided to limit itself to the modernization of the already delivered F-16 A / B. As a result, Taiwan has not received new aircraft since the 2000s, which seriously weakened its Air Force against the background of the rapid development of the PRC army. Taiwan is forced to intensify the development of the national military-industrial complex in a number of areas.
The balance of power in the region has seriously changed not in favor of Taiwan. China is already capable of conducting an operation to restore the unity of the state. But for now, China prefers a peaceful path. And on this path he achieved considerable success. This worries Washington, which fears losing an important lever of influence over the Celestial Empire. And this is happening at a time when the United States is pursuing a policy of containing China.
Under Barack Obama, Washington initially tried to improve relations with Beijing, even to create the so-called. The Big Two. Therefore, Obama supported the election in 2008 of the President of the Kyrgyz Republic, Ma Ying-jeou, Chairman of the Kuomintang, who proclaimed a course of rapprochement with the PRC. Ma, while still mayor of Taipei, advocated gradual unification with mainland China and declared the unacceptability of Taiwan's independence. On the initiative of Ma Ying-jeou, direct charter flights between the PRC and the Kyrgyz Republic were established for the first time, Taiwan was opened to tourists from China. Beijing has eased restrictions on Taiwanese investment in the PRC economy.
However, when Obama's plan for the "Big Two" failed and the United States switched to a policy of containing China, the unification of the PRC and the Kyrgyz Republic, which loomed in the long term, ceased to appeal to Washington. The Americans do not want to lose the "Taiwanese aircraft carrier" off the coast of the PRC in conditions when the APR is becoming the main "front" of the confrontation between the United States and China. But given the peaceful rapprochement between Beijing and Taipei, Washington has little opportunity to stop this process. Americans need the Taiwan map more than ever, but the CD shows an almost complete lack of interest in the United States. Taipei again recognized the 1992 Consensus, which implies that the two sides recognize China's unity: "China and Taiwan are not separate states." Now, only a serious change in Taipei's domestic policy can turn Taiwan towards the United States. Thus, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) supports the official recognition of Taiwan's independence from the mainland state and proposes to change the constitution for this. DPP enters under the slogan of "national identity" of the Taiwanese. However, Ma Ying-jeou won the new presidential election in 2012. DPP suffered a new defeat.
Taiwan has close economic relations with the PRC. When Taiwan became one of the "Asian tigers" with a highly developed knowledge-based industry. The Taiwanese began to transfer environmentally harmful, technologically backward, labor-intensive and material-intensive industries to mainland China, as well as the production of components (labor in the PRC was cheaper). The production of the most important components was retained in Taiwan. The economic interests of the "top" of both parts of China coincided, so Beijing was calm about such an economic offensive by Taiwan. Economic cooperation between the PRC and Taiwan made the war unnecessary. Politicians and businessmen are extremely interested in maintaining the status quo and expanding economic cooperation between the two Chinas. There is a process of merging of the power and material interests of the mainland and Taiwanese elites. Beijing is doing everything to make the two economies and two financial systems one whole. After that, political unification will take place in the most natural way.
In 2010, the Framework Agreement on Economic Cooperation was signed. This agreement provides for the reduction or cancellation of tariffs on Taiwanese goods, which are imported into the PRC in the amount of $ 14 billion. Chinese goods received $ 3 billion in preferential access. Beijing deliberately made a concession to Taipei. On January 1, 2011, the three-year Early Harvest program began, which is designed to significantly reduce customs tariffs, up to their complete cancellation. Since February 2013, financial institutions of the Kyrgyz Republic have received the right to conduct lending operations, transfer funds and create deposits in Chinese yuan (renminbi). On the very first day, the Taiwanese opened deposits for 1.3 billion yuan (about $ 208 million). The Chinese yuan and the PRC banks are conducting a systematic offensive. Now the war with Taiwan is simply unprofitable for China. There will be a threat of destruction of the island's economy. Taiwan is valuable to China as a source of investment, technology, and profit. Why fight when you can just “buy” Taiwan?
Ma Ying-jeou has markedly distanced himself from the United States. In particular, the ties in the military sphere between the United States and the Kyrgyz Republic, recently very versatile, have been reduced to a simple purchase and modernization of weapons. In addition, the United States did not resolve the issue of supplying new fighters and did not help Taipei with the purchase of new submarines. Taiwan was forced to make a decision to independently design and build 8-9 new submarines. In 2001, US President George W. Bush approved the delivery of eight diesel-electric submarines to Taiwan. But since then there has been no further progress. The problem is that the States themselves have not built diesel-electric submarines for over 40 years, and they also do not want to annoy China. Germany and Spain refused to supply their submarines for political reasons, fearing a deterioration in relations with the PRC.
At the same time, the United States has some trump cards. Thus, the global economic crisis plays into the hands of the United States. First, China's economy has been hit. The Celestial Empire is facing serious challenges. Systemic defects in the Chinese economy are forcing Beijing to pursue a more active, even offensive, foreign policy in order to divert the attention of the population from internal problems. The factor of the need for a "small victorious war" after a while will become a political reality for the PRC. The Chinese state and party apparatus is in close cooperation with business (often through family ties), so the ideology of Chinese nationalism will gradually come to the fore. Japan's "trolling" over the Senkaku Islands and the creation of an air defense zone are the first steps in this direction. The growing aggressiveness of the PRC in upholding its national interests seriously worries its neighbors. The question arises as to how the Celestial Empire will behave if a new wave of the crisis leads to even more serious consequences.
Secondly, these are the economic problems of Taiwan itself. The Kyrgyz Republic survived the first wave of the global crisis well. GDP continued to grow steadily. However, during the second wave, the situation deteriorated markedly. GDP growth in 2012 was only 2%. This is not a crisis yet, but it is already unpleasant. Prices for utilities began to rise. For the first time, economic protests were held in Taipei. The president's popularity has dropped significantly. Ma Ying-jeou's rating dropped to 13%, the lowest in his career. New elections - in 2015. The Democratic Progressive Party is already blaming the current regime for rapprochement with China. The stronghold of the DPP are the so-called "indigenous" Taiwanese, descendants of immigrants from southern China who settled on the island several centuries ago. They consider themselves to be a separate community from China and speak their own dialect, which is very different from the standard Chinese language. Indigenous Taiwanese make up about 80% of the island's population. There are fewer and fewer supporters of a united China. Now there are only about 5% of them. Most of the Taiwanese are in favor of maintaining the status quo. However, the number of supporters of complete independence is growing. It is believed that if Ma Ying-jeou decides to raise the issue of reunification with mainland China, then the parliament will not support him.
Thus, the situation is stable so far. If there were a relatively peaceful picture on the planet, then it could be assumed that China in the medium or long term would annex Taiwan peacefully. But current negative trends can easily tip the scales in the opposite direction. In 2015, the Kyrgyz Republic may be headed by a representative of the DPP, who will either slow down the emerging trend towards the merger of the economies and finances of the two Chinas, or cause a new acute crisis (decides to declare the independence of the Kyrgyz Republic de jure), which will sooner or later lead to a military conflict. Beijing in the context of the global systemic crisis will no longer be able to allow itself to maintain the status quo and will conduct an operation to annex Taiwan. As long as the Kuomintang rules Taiwan, Beijing will refrain from forceful methods of reunification.
Militarily, Taiwan is seriously inferior to China and is unable to repel its blow. The priority of building the armed forces is to create a relatively small army equipped with the latest technology. A major obstacle to the creation of such an army is the refusal of most states to sell weapons to Taipei.
After the United States refused to supply new F-16C / D fighters, modernization programs for the 145 F-16A / B already in service with the Air Force became a priority. A modernization program for the Taiwanese multirole fighter AIDC F-CK-1 Ching-kuo is also being implemented. The aircraft are equipped with a proprietary Wan Chien weapon system. The Wan Chien system (literally "10 thousand swords") is a cluster weapon that is equipped with more than 100 submunitions with a range of more than 200 km. A cluster missile can be launched over the Taiwan Strait. Due to the considerable range, the weapon can hit targets on the territory of mainland China (troop concentrations, airfields, ports and industrial facilities). In addition, the Taiwanese military is hoping that if the Republicans win in the United States, the Kyrgyz Republic will be able to buy 5th generation F-35 fighters.
Fighter Ching-kuo.
In 2009, a contract was signed for the supply of 12 P-3C Orion patrol aircraft. The first aircraft of the Taiwanese Navy was received in September 2013. The last of the 11 aircraft will be handed over in 2015. In the spring of 2013, the E-2K Hawkeye early warning aircraft modernization program was completed. The US has upgraded four Taiwanese E-2T flying radars purchased in 1995. The radars, control systems, software, avionics and propellers were updated on the aircraft. At the same time, Taiwan is developing programs for the development of unmanned aircraft systems, long-range missiles, and the development of cyber security units. In November 2013, Taiwan received the first 6 AH-64E Apache attack helicopters. The contract for the supply of 30 vehicles was signed in 2008. All machines should be delivered by the end of 2014. According to the Ministry of Defense of Taiwan, the AH-64E will significantly increase the mobility and power of the country's army.
As noted above, the situation with the submarine fleet is dire. In service there are two submarines built in the 1980s in Holland. Two more old submarines from the 1940s are used as training submarines. Taipei was forced to initiate a national submarine design and construction program. To strengthen the power of the surface forces, Taiwan asked the United States to sell 4 destroyers armed with the Aegis air defense system, but Washington refused. The core of the fleet is made up of 4 Kidd (Ki Lun) class destroyers. To replace part of the Knox-class frigates, which were adopted during the Vietnam War, delivery of two Oliver Hazard Perry-class frigates from the US Navy is expected. It is possible that Taiwan will receive two more similar ships. In addition, the issue of purchasing a series of national-built corvettes and minesweepers is being resolved. The process of replacing old missile boats with new "Kuang Hua VI" type missile launchers, built using "stealth" technology, is underway. They are armed with four extended-range Hsiung Feng II anti-ship missiles. Minesweepers and missile boats are needed to defend the Taiwan Strait.
In general, the Taiwanese Navy is small but well balanced. The main drawback of the Taiwan Navy is the difficult (due to the disputed political status of the Kyrgyz Republic) access to modern military technology. The main weaknesses are the lack of air defense and the problem of the submarine fleet.
Kidd-class destroyer
