With the armament of our fleet with hypersonic anti-ship missiles, even a small missile cruiser will pose a mortal threat to any US naval formations, including aircraft carriers.
The appearance of a serial hypersonic missile means a revolution in naval art: the relative parity in the offensive-defense system will change, the potential of offensive weapons will radically exceed the capabilities of defense.
The news of the successful tests of the latest Russian hypersonic missile seriously worried the US military leadership. There, judging by media reports, they decided to develop countermeasures by fire. We did not pay due attention to this event. Meanwhile, the introduction of this missile into the armament will become a revolution in military shipbuilding, will significantly change the balance of forces in the sea and ocean theaters, and will immediately put outdated models that are still considered quite modern into the category of obsolete ones.
NPO Mashinostroyenia has been conducting a unique development since at least 2011 ("Zircon", five Machs from the target "). In open sources, scientific and industrial cooperation of enterprises and research institutes involved in its creation is presented quite fully for such a promising and, accordingly, closed project. But the performance characteristics of the missile are shown very sparingly. In fact, only two are known: the speed, which is estimated with a good accuracy of Mach 5-6 (the speed of sound in the surface layer of the atmosphere) and a very approximate probable range of 800-1000 kilometers. True, some other important data are available, on the basis of which the rest of the characteristics can be roughly estimated.
On warships "Zircon" will be used from a universal vertical launch launcher 3S-14, unified for "Caliber" and "Onyx". The rocket must be two-stage. The starting stage is a solid propellant engine. Only a ramjet engine (ramjet engine) can be used as a sustainer. The main carriers of "Zircons" are considered heavy nuclear missile cruisers (TARKR) projects 11442 and 11442M, as well as a promising nuclear submarine with cruise missiles (SSGN) of the 5th generation "Husky". According to unconfirmed reports, the creation of an export version - "BrahMos-II", a model of which was presented at DefExpo 2014 in February 2014, is being considered.
At the beginning of this year, the first successful flight tests of a ground-based missile were carried out. It is assumed that they will be put into service with the start of deliveries to the ships of the Russian Navy before the end of the decade.
What can be drawn from this data? Based on the assumption of placement in a unified launcher for "Calibers" and "Onyxes", we make a conclusion about the dimensions and, in particular, that the energy of the GOS "Zircon" cannot significantly exceed the same indicators of the two mentioned missiles, that is, it is 50-80 kilometers depending on the effective area of dispersion (RCS) of the target. The warhead of an operational-tactical missile, designed to destroy large surface ships, cannot be small. Taking into account the open data on the weight of the warheads "Onyx" and "Caliber", it can be estimated at 250-300 kilograms.
The trajectory of a missile's flight at hypersonic speed with a probable range of 800–1000 kilometers can only be high-altitude on the main part of the route. Presumably 30,000 meters, or even higher. This is how a long range of hypersonic flight is achieved and the effectiveness of the most modern air defense systems is significantly reduced. In the final section, the missile is likely to perform anti-aircraft maneuvering, in particular with a descent to extremely low altitudes.
The control system of the missile and its seeker is likely to have algorithms that allow it to autonomously identify the location of the main target in the enemy's order. The shape of the rocket (judging by the model) is made taking into account stealth technology. This means that its RCS can be of the order of 0.001 square meters. The detection range of the Zircon by the most powerful radars of foreign surface ships and RLD aircraft is 90–120 kilometers in free space.
Obsolete "Standard"
These data are enough to assess the capabilities of the most modern and powerful air defense system of American Ticonderoga-class cruisers and Orly Burke-class URO destroyers based on Aegis BIUS with the most modern Standard-6 missiles. This missile (full name RIM-174 SM-6 ERAM) entered service with the US Navy in 2013. The main difference from the previous versions of the "Standard" is the use of an active radar seeker, which makes it possible to effectively engage targets - "fire and forget" - without being accompanied by the carrier's firing radar. This significantly increases the effectiveness of its use for low-flying targets, in particular over the horizon, and allows it to work according to external target designation data, for example, an AWACS aircraft. With a starting weight of 1,500 kilograms, "Standard-6" hits 240 kilometers, the maximum height of hitting air targets is 33 kilometers. The speed of the rocket is 3.5 M, approximately 1000 meters per second. The maximum overload during maneuvering is about 50 units. The warhead is kinetic (for ballistic purposes) or fragmentation (for aerodynamic) weighing 125 kilograms - twice as much as in previous series of missiles. The maximum speed of aerodynamic targets is estimated at 800 meters per second. The probability of hitting such a target with one missile in the range conditions is set at 0.95.
Comparison of the performance characteristics of "Zircon" and "Standard-6" shows that our missile hits the border of the range of the American missile defense system in height and is almost twice the maximum speed of aerodynamic targets permissible for it - 1500 versus 800 meters per second. Conclusion: American Standard-6 cannot hit our "swallow". However, this does not mean that the hypersonic Zircons will not be fired upon. The Aegis system is capable of detecting such a high-speed target and issuing target designation for firing - it provides for the possibility of solving missile defense problems and even combating satellites, the speed of which is much higher than that of the Zircon anti-ship missile system. Therefore, the shooting will be carried out. It remains to assess the likelihood of our missile being hit by an American missile defense system.
It should be noted that the probabilities of destruction given in the performance characteristics of missiles are usually given for polygon conditions. That is, when the target does not maneuver and moves at a speed that is optimal to hit it. In real combat, the probability of defeat is, as a rule, significantly lower. This is due to the peculiarities of the missile guidance process, which determine the indicated restrictions on the permissible speed of a maneuvering target and the height of its defeat. We will not go into these details. It is important to note that the probability of hitting the Standard-6 missile defense system of a maneuvering aerodynamic target will be influenced by the detection range of an active seeker and the accuracy of the missile reaching the target capture point, the permissible overload of the missile during maneuvering and the density of the atmosphere, as well as errors in the location and elements of target movement according to the radar target designation and CIUS.
All these factors determine the main thing - whether the missile defense system will be able to "select", taking into account the target's maneuvering, the amount of miss to the level at which the warhead is capable of hitting it.
There is no open data on the range of the active seeker of the "Standard-6" missile defense system. However, based on the mass and size characteristics of the rocket, it can be assumed that a fighter with an RCS of about five square meters can be seen within 15–20 kilometers. Accordingly, for a target with an RCS of 0, 001 square meters - a Zircon missile - the range of the Standard-6 seeker does not exceed two to three kilometers. Shooting when repelling attacking anti-ship missiles will be conducted, naturally, on a collision course. That is, the speed of convergence of missiles will be about 2300-2500 meters per second. To perform a rendezvous maneuver, the missile defense system has less than one second from the moment the target is detected. The possibilities for reducing the magnitude of the miss are negligible. Especially when it comes to intercepting at extreme altitudes - about 30 kilometers, where the rarefied atmosphere significantly reduces the missile's ability to maneuver. In fact, in order to successfully defeat such a target as the Zircon, the SAM "Standard-6" must be brought to it with an error not exceeding the engagement zone of its warhead - 8-10 meters.
Sinking aircraft carriers
Calculations made taking into account these factors show that the probability of a Zircon missile being hit by one Standard-6 missile is unlikely to exceed 0.02–0.03 under the most favorable conditions and target designation directly from the missile carrier. When firing at the data of external target designation, for example, an AWACS aircraft or another ship, taking into account errors in determining the relative position, as well as the delay time for the exchange of information, the error in the output of the missile defense system to the target will be greater, and the probability of its destruction is less, and it is very significant - up to 0, 005–0, 012. On the whole, it can be stated that Standard-6, the most effective missile defense system in the Western world, has scanty potential to defeat the Zircon.
Someone may object: the Americans from the Ticonderoga-class cruiser hit a satellite flying at a speed of 27,000 kilometers per hour at an altitude of about 240 kilometers. But he did not maneuver and his position was determined with extremely high accuracy after long observation, which made it possible to bring the missile defense missile to the target without a miss. The defending side will not have such opportunities when repelling the Zircon attack, besides, the anti-ship missile system will begin to maneuver.
Let us evaluate the possibility of hitting our anti-ship missile system by means of air defense of a cruiser of the "Ticonderoga" type or an URO destroyer of the "Orly Burke" type. First of all, it should be noted that the detection range of the "Zircon" radar survey of the airspace of these ships can be estimated within 90-120 kilometers. That is, the time of the approach of the anti-ship missile system to the task execution line from the moment it appears on the enemy's radar will not exceed 1.5 minutes. The closed loop of the Aegis air defense system has everything for 30-35 seconds. With two Mk41 air defense missiles, it is possible to actually release no more than four missiles, potentially, taking into account the remaining time, to approach the attacking target and hit it - the probability of the Zircon being hit by the main air defense system of a cruiser or destroyer URO will be no more than 0, 08–0, 12. ZAK capabilities self-defense of the ship - "Volcano-Falanx" in this case is negligible.
Accordingly, two such ships, even with the full use of their air defense systems against one Zircon anti-ship missile, give the probability of its destruction 0, 16–0, 23. That is, the KUG of two URO cruisers or destroyers have little chance of destroying even a single Zircon missile.
Remains electronic warfare funds. These are active diverting and passive interference. To set them up, the time from the moment the anti-ship missiles was detected or the operation of their GOS is sufficient. The complex use of jamming can disrupt the guidance of a missile to a target with a decent probability, which, taking into account the working time of the ship's electronic warfare system, can be estimated at 0, 3–0, 5.
However, when firing at a group target, there is a high likelihood of the GOS anti-ship missile being captured by another target in the order. Just as in the fighting at the Falklands, the British aircraft carrier was able, by placing passive interference, to divert the Exocet anti-ship missile system coming towards it. Her seeker, having lost this target, seized the Atlantic Conveyors container ship, which sank after being hit by a missile. At the speed of "Zircon" another ship of the order, which will capture the GOS anti-ship missile system, simply will not have enough time for the effective use of electronic warfare means.
It follows from these estimates that a salvo of even two Zircon missiles at the KUG in the composition of two Ticonderoga-class cruisers or Orly Burke-class URO destroyers with a probability of 0, 7–0, 8 will lead to the incapacitation or sinking of at least one from the ships of the KUG. A four-rocket salvo is almost guaranteed to destroy both ships. Since the firing range of the Zircon is almost twice that of the Tomahawk anti-ship missile (about 500 km), the American KUG has no chances to win the battle with our cruiser equipped with the Zircon anti-ship missile system. Even with the superiority of the Americans in intelligence and surveillance systems.
Slightly better for the American fleet is the situation when the KUG of the Russian Federation, led by a cruiser equipped with the anti-ship missile system "Zircon", is opposed by an aircraft carrier strike group (AUG). The combat radius of carrier-based attack aircraft when operating in groups of 30–40 vehicles does not exceed 600–800 kilometers. This means that it will be very problematic for the AUG to deliver a preemptive strike against our ship formation with large forces capable of penetrating air defenses. Strikes by small groups of carrier-based aircraft - in pairs and units capable of operating at a distance of up to 2000 kilometers with refueling in the air - against our KUG with modern multi-channel air defense systems will be ineffective.
The exit of our KUG for a salvo and the launch of 15-16 anti-ship missiles "Zircon" for the AUG will be fatal. The probability of incapacitation or sinking of an aircraft carrier will be 0.8–0.85 with the destruction of two or three escort ships. That is, the AUG with such a salvo will be guaranteed to be defeated. According to open data, on the cruisers of the 1144 project, after the modernization, the UVP 3S-14 with 80 cells should be placed. With such an ammunition load of the Zircon anti-ship missile system, our cruiser can defeat up to three US AUGs.
However, no one will interfere in the future with placing the Zircon anti-ship missile system both on frigates and on small missile ships, which, as you know, have 16 and 8 cells, respectively, for the Caliber and Onyx missile launchers. This will dramatically increase their combat capabilities and make them a serious enemy even for aircraft carrier groups.
Note that the United States is also intensively developing hypersonic EHV. But the Americans focused their main efforts on creating strategic hypersonic missiles. Data on the development in the United States of anti-ship hypersonic missiles like the Zircon is not yet available, at least in the public domain. Therefore, it can be assumed that the superiority of the Russian Federation in this area will last for quite a long time - up to 10 years or more. The question is, how do we use it? Will we be able to saturate the fleet with a sufficient number of these anti-ship missiles in a short time? With the pitiful state of the economy and the sequestration of the state defense order, it is unlikely.
The appearance of a serial hypersonic missile will require the development of new methods and forms of warfare at sea, in particular for the destruction of enemy surface forces and ensuring the combat stability of our own. To adequately build up the potential of air defense systems of ships, it is probably necessary to revise the conceptual foundations of building such systems. This will take time - at least 10-15 years.
